By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The BLS announced that CPI inflation fell from 8.07% to 4.28% on an annualized basis (that is, month-over-month), the year over year rate increased from 3.72% to 3.95%, and our trend measure dropped slightly from 4.62% to 4.51%.
The monthly core CPI inflation rate declined from 4.09% to 3.61%, annual crept up from 2.57% to 2.77%, and our trend measure ticked up from 3.11% to 3.28%.
The 16% trimmed mean inflation measure rose from 3.53% to 4.52%. However, the use of new, alternative measures, like a trimmed mean, by the FOMC is still an open question.
The Fed pause at the last FOMC meeting came with a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting, preferring a 25 basis point increase. The FOMC statement included “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” While there were small declines in a couple of the measures, all remain well above the 2 percent goal.
