Upward Revision to Q4 GDP

By Thomas Cooley, Ben Griffy and Peter Rupert

The third and final estimate of Q4 GDP growth reveals an upward revision from 1.9% in the advance and 2nd revisions to 2.1%. The increase came largely from a full one percentage point increase in PCE, from 2.5% in the advance estimate to 3.5% in the 3rd.

gdprealchgm1-2017-03-30

pcerealchgm1-2017-03-30

Fixed investment was revised down slightly, from 9.4% to 9.2% with a fairly large downward revision to intellectual property rights, falling from 4.5% in the 2nd estimate to 1.3% in the final. Non-residential fixed investment grew at 0.9% while residential grew at near double digits, 9.6%.

nrfireal-q-2017-03-30

residentialinv-2017-03-30

Exports fell by 4.5% while imports shot up 9.0%, leading to a large decline in net exports.

netexports-2017-03-30.png

With the final estimate now in for real GDP, 2016 growth was the slowest since coming out of the Great Recession, 1.6% (tied with 2011).

gdpychg-2017-03-30

 

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