November Employment Report: Good Enough

by Thomas Cooley and Peter Rupert

Establishment Survey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey for November shows an employment increase of 211,000 jobs, with an upward revision of 27,000 jobs for October and down 5,000 jobs for September.

empchgm-2015-12-04

Average weekly hours fell slightly, from 34.6 to 34.5 and average hourly earning were essentially flat. Since 2009 the BLS also produces data for all private workers, evidently higher than for just production and non-supervisory workers; however, the same basic pattern emerges. The recent climb in real hourly earning stems almost entirely from the decline in inflation as nominal earnings growth has hovered around 2% for the last five years or so.

avghours-2015-12-04

ahetpps-2015-12-04

ahetpreal-2015-12-04

ahepscpiyoy-2015-12-04.png

Household Survey

parttime-2015-12-04The household survey reveals very little significant change  over the past few months. The unemployment rate ticked up ever so slightly…from 5.036 to 5.046, but who’s splitting hairs. The participation rate also ticked up slightly and the employment to population ratio was essentially unchanged. The number of people working part time for economic reasons  popped up by 319,000 but it has been declining steadily for months.  The composition of the unemployed changed slightly with more more new-entrants to the labor force and more re-entrants.  The overall picture is of a recovered labor market with some continuing longer term structural issues.

unrate-2015-12-04

lfp-2015-12-04

unemp-composition-2015-12-04

epr-2015-12-04

parttime-2015-12-04

 

udur27-2015-12-04

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s