by paul gomme and peter rupert
The BLS announced that payroll employment rose 228,000 in March after January and February’s lackluster performance. The private sector added the bulk of the jobs, 209,000, with the government sector adding 19,000. The federal government, however, lost 4,000 jobs in March having already lost 11,000 in February.
The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, adding only 1,000 jobs in March and only 4,000 jobs over the past three months. The service sector, on the other hand, grew 197,000.
Average weekly hours remained at 34.2 and average hourly earnings rose from $35.91 to $36.00.
The household survey showed an employment increase of 201,000. The number of unemployed persons increased by 31,000. The labor force participation rate increased from 62.4 to 62.5. The unemployment rate ticked up very slightly, from 4.14% to 4.15%. Note that the unemployment rate as well as those marginally attached are still near their all time lows.
The Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was released on April 1. Overall, there was very little change in any of the metrics: openings, hires and separations. As of March, there are still slightly more job openings that unemployed individuals.
On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced drastic increases in U.S. tariffs. While uncertainty over these tariffs may have affected March job creation, the effects of the actual tariffs will only be reflected in the data starting with April data. The full effects of the tariffs will depend on things like: (1) Whether U.S. trade partners respond with their own tariffs; (2) Whether U.S. trade partners can come to an agreement to end the tariff war; and (3) How quickly U.S. firms can adapt their supply chains to the new tariff environment, including reshoring manufacturing jobs. A murky monetary policy outlook is even murkier.