By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.2% over the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. On an annualized basis, the CPI increased 2.27%, up 0.41 percentage points from July’s 1.88%. The year over year reading was 2.59% which is down 0.33 points from the 2.92% recorded in July. One way to think about the fall in the year-over-year inflation rate is that it’s the average of the current and past 11 months’ monthly inflation rates. Consequently, the decline in the year-over-year inflation rate can be attributed to dropping the 6.32% monthly inflation rate from August 2023 while adding the lower 2.27% for August 2024. Our preferred trend measure came in at 1.87%. While the trend number looks pretty good on the surface at 1.87% it has been creeping up over the last few months: 1.58% in June, 1.68% in July and now 1.87% in August.
The core (ex food and energy, CPIX) measures tell a slightly worse story, with the annualized number hitting 3.42%, the year over year up 3.26% and our trend measure up 2.68%. There were very large declines in the monthly numbers for energy products: gasoline down 0.6%, fuel oil down 1.9% and energy services down 0.9%. Used cars and trucks also saw a large decline of 1.0%.
Chairman Powell has all but promised “Christmas in September” in the form of a cut in the Fed funds rate. Moreover, given the relationship between the CPI measures and the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure core measure means that this measure of inflation will likely show an increase when it’s released in a couple of weeks. While the unemployment rate has been creeping up, real output growth has been robust. (If the US is deemed in some dire situation with a 4.2% unemployment rate, pity Canadians with their 6.6% rate) In our humble opinions, the current inflation data do not warrant such a cut, much less the 50 basis point cut hoped for by some commentators.
