By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The BLS announced that total nonfarm payroll employment increased 336,000 of which 263,000 came from the private sector as the government sector added 73,000 more workers. In addition, revisions to the two previous months increased employment by another 119,000.
This was a very strong jobs report that seems to have taken those prone to making predictions by surprise:
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect that September will show a 170,000 net gain in nonfarm payrolls.
CNBC
Looking back at the January 472,000 number (was 517,000 before revisions) here is what economists forecast:
The January jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000, far higher than the 187,000 market estimate.
CNBC
Evidently, forecasting the US economy, or any economy for that matter, is not a simple task.
Total nonfarm employment has rebounded strongly from the depths of the pandemic and is now close to where it would have been had it stayed on the trend line post Great Recession.
The service sector added the bulk of jobs, up 234,000; 96,000 coming from Leisure and Hospitality that was obviously slammed during the pandemic and is still below its pre-pandemic level by 184,000 employees.
Average weekly hours remained at 34.4 and so the increase in total hours of work came solely from the new employees. Average hourly earnings increased from $33.81 to $33.88.
The household survey was remarkable as there was very little movement in any measure. Employment increased by only 86,000, there was no change in the employment to population ratio (60.4) or in the unemployment rate (3.8%).
Looking forward, it appears that what policy makers consider “inflationary pressures” are still hanging around given the strength of the labor market and the overall economy pretty much running on all cylinders. Although many of the price numbers have declined they still remain above the Fed’s 2% target indicating that more weight is likely being put on another rate hike than a continued pause.
