By Thomas Cooley and Peter Rupert
The BLS announced that payroll employment increased 235,000 in August…about 500,000 than some had expected. However, there were upward revisions of 24,000 in June and 110,000 in July that took some of the sting off the disappointing August report. Private payrolls were up 242,000 while the public sector shed 8,000 jobs. Retail trade employed fell 28,500 and there was no change in leisure and hospitality employment.
While there has been a pretty steady increase in employment gains we have not yet climbed out of the pandemic driven decline. The leisure and hospitality sector is still 10% below its pre-pandemic high. The retail sector, however, has basically recovered. Total payroll employment is about 4% below the pre-pandemic high. Average hours remained at 34.7 for the third consecutive month. Average hourly earnings also ticked up from $30.56 to $30.73 but these increases get diluted from the rise in inflation.
The household survey revealed an unemployment rate decline to 5.2% following an increase in employment of 509,000, 318,000 fewer unemployed and a labor force increased of 190,000. The pandemic has kept the unemployment for the Leisure and Hospitality well above its pre-pandemic level.
With the Delta variant surging and inflation rising as well does not bode well for the near term if there are more lockdowns and the Fed stops playing nice.