By Thomas Cooley and Peter Rupert
The BLS announced that nonfarm payroll employment increased 638,000, however, private sector nonfarm employment increased 906,000 as the government side shed 268,000 jobs in October. Over the last two months government employment has fallen nearly half a million…but note that government for July was up 235,000 and in August up 465,000.
Overall the employment report was strong. Nearly every sector increased employment with retail up 103,700 and temp help services up 108,700. A slight decline in utilities and information, totaling 4,500. The employment to population ratio continues its climb but remains about four percentage points below the first of the year.
The household survey showed the unemployment rate fell from 7.86% to 6.88%. The labor force grew by 724,000 and the number unemployed fell by about 1.5 million. Last Thursday we saw further declines in both initial and continued claims. Initial claims have been moving down slowly over the past few weeks, while continued claims have been falling much more quickly.
Is The Recovery Stalling?
Although employment continued to rebound the pace of the recovery has slowed. So far the economy has made up about 55% of the 22.2 million decline in employment in March and April. This is not the robust V shaped recovery everyone hoped for and the reasons are clear. Reallocation takes time and it also takes a healthy environment and workplace where people can safely resume their normal activities. As the pandemic worsens, that is far from the reality.
It also seem clear that additional stimulus, which everyone has called for, could help to boost this recovery some. But it, and the welfare of the country, have fallen victim to the toxic politics in Washington D.C.
