By Thomas Cooley and Peter Rupert
September employment increased by 134,000 and there were significant upward revisions to July and August (18,000 in July and 69,000 in August) according to the establishment data from the BLS.
The retail trade and leisure and hospitality sectors experienced declines, -20,000 and -17,000, respectively, but those were the only two with declines to speak of. While retail trade employment has largely rebounded since the depths of the Great Recession, growth has stalled over the past year or so while leisure and hospitality has been climbing at a much faster pace. In 1990 retail trade employment was about 45% higher than leisure and hospitality but has since been surpassed by leisure and hospitality.
Average weekly hours remained at 34.5 for the third consecutive month. Average hourly earnings moved up slightly from $27.16 to $27.74.
The number of unemployed persons fell by 270,000, the labor force increased 150,000, leading to a fall in the unemployment rate from 3.85% to 3.68%. The labor force participation rate remains low at 62.7, for reasons we have speculated about before and the employment population ratio increased slightly from 60.3 to 60.4.
While many had predicted a weak employment outlook due to Florence, the overall outcome was relatively strong. The Fed will continue its planned course of action to raise the interest rate one more time this year.