Month: March 2014

by Zach Bethune, Thomas Cooley and Peter Rupert

GDP Report

The BEA announced that real GDP increased at a saar of 2.6% for 2013 Q4 (advance estimate was 3.2% and the second estimate was 2.4%). The overall picture for the U.S. economy remains largely the same. The increase from the last estimate comes largely from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment. Moreover, the increase in PCE was the largest increase since the end of 2010. The deceleration  comes mainly from a decline in inventories, a bigger decrease in government spending and residential fixed investment.

Initial claims for unemployment fell to 311k, its lowest level since last Thanksgiving and the 4-week moving average hit 318k.

by: Zach Bethune, Thomas Cooley, Peter Rupert

The February employment report from the BLS provides little material to sway anyone’s prior beliefs, although the headline jobs number was slightly higher than many prognosticators prognosticated. The establishment survey reports total nonfarm employment increased 175,000 with 162,000 attributed to the private sector and the remaining 13,000 to an increase in government workers.

Total employment has nearly reached its December 2007 level…some six years after the beginning of the recession.

The service sector added 140,000 jobs, with professional and business services adding 79,000 jobs, 24,400 of which are temporary services. Average weekly hours fell slightly to 34.2 from 34.3…and a year ago in February average hours were 34.5.

The household survey shows the number of employed (145,266,000) and unemployed (10,459,000) persons both increasing slightly. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 6.6% to 6.7%. Since February 2013, the unemployment rate has declined 1.0 percentage point. The employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rate were unchanged. Fortunately or unfortunately the headline story of the US remains much the same as it has been since the beginning of the recovery in mid-2009.